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Asia shrugs off Sars' economic impact

10/07/2003 15:55
After months of gloomy predictions, some of Asia's biggest economies are emerging from the outbreak of the deadly Sars virus more or less unscathed.

China and Japan have unveiled statistics showing that economic recovery from the epidemic has been rapid, and that some sectors have in fact benefited.

The news is in sharp contrast to pundits' pessimism during the outbreak, which centred around the damage done to Asia's services industries, especially tourism.

By making human contact less attractive, many argued, Sars cut down on commercial interaction and persuaded potential visitors to shun the region.

Surging ahead

China, which suffered most casualties from the outbreak, has been economically least affected.

Its economy has been growing extremely rapidly for years, and showed no signs of slowing.

During the first half of this year, Chinese exports jumped by one-third year on year, and imports leapt by 45%.

This surge in trade helped fuel continuing gains in industrial production, which was up 16% during the same period.

Some sectors outperformed expectations, notably cars, which Chinese consumers bought in unexpectedly high numbers in order to avoid public transport.

The buoyancy comes despite the fact that China's main industrial region, the coastal southwest, was at the heart of the Sars outbreak.

Staying put

Japan was barely touched by the epidemic, but its economy was tipped to suffer along with the rest of Asia.

But new figures show that it has benefited from the decision of many Japanese tourists and shoppers to stay at home.

The number of Japanese travelling abroad in May fell to 575,000 from the previous month's 1,279,000, the trade ministry said.

This alone helped to more than halve Japan's services deficit - the amount by which Japanese spending on overseas services exceeds those it sells abroad.

And the country's overall current-account balance - which includes trade in goods as well as services and other considerations - jumped by 29% to 1.4 trillion yen (£7bn; $11.4bn), way above expectations.

Winners and losers

Not all Asian countries have been as immune as Japan and China, which have the advantage of size.

Smaller economies where the disease did proportionally more damage, notably Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong, have been hit harder.

But even in these countries, economic recovery is already showing signs of being rapid.

And some sectors have reported positive benefits, notably those services catering to the desire to huddle at home.

Internet service providers, for example, have reported booming business around the region.