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IMF predicts bigger deficit

07/10/2015 18:30
The budget deficit is expected to reach 1,3% in 2015 compared to 0,2% the previous year and the 0,9% provided in the memorandum, according to the International Monetary Fund.

In the Fiscal Monitor report, IMF expects for 2016 a budget surplus of 0.1% while larger surpluses are estimated for the following years until 2020.

According to the objectives of the Memorandum the budget deficit is estimated to narrow to €155,7 mn or 0.9% of GDP.

As far as primary surplus is concerned, IMF estimates that it will reach 1.3% this year compared to the target of 1.9% or €334,3 mn in the memorandum.

A 2.4% primary surplus is forecast for 2016, 3% for 2017 and 3.6% of GDP in the years 2018-2020.
According to the latest figures from Cystat, the budget surplus amounted to € 118,8 mn or 0.7% of GDP in January - August 2015 compared with a surplus of € 141,5 mn or 0.8% in the first eight months of 2014. Cystat data are those sent to troika and Eurostat.

As regards the public debt, the IMF expects a decline to 106.4% of GDP this year from 107.5% in 2014 while a fall to 98.4% is expected in 2016. Debt is expected to be reduced in the following years as well, remaining however above the threshold of 60% of GDP.

The IMF maintains a conservative and cautious estimate for the recovery of the economy in 2015, unlike estimates of domestic and international analysts. In its World Economic Outlook report, released yesterday, the IMF maintained its estimate for a 0.5% growth of the economy in 2015, after shrinking by 2.3% in 2014.

The IMF predicts that in 2016 GDP growth will reach 1.4%.