EY survey: Greater tax risk for organizations globally, in 2021 and beyond

• 53% of tax leaders expect heightened tax enforcement in the next three years
• Transfer pricing, COVID-19 and digitization of tax authorities lead concerns
• 66% say that the C-suite is demonstrating more interest in tax issues

More than half (53%) of responding business tax leaders expect greater tax enforcement in the next three years, particularly as governments look to remedy budget pressures and stimulate their economies during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the 2021 EY Tax Risk and Controversy Survey. EY teams canvassed the views of 1,265 tax and finance leaders across 60 jurisdictions and 20 industry sectors during the fourth quarter of 2020, making it the largest sample in the survey’s history.

Business tax leader respondents highlighted issues around workers stranded overseas, treatment of financial losses linked to the pandemic, the claiming of tax refunds and even the receipt of stimulus measures as top pandemic-related tax risks. Respondents are also concerned about tax risk related to transfer pricing – skewed by the pandemic – and an acceleration in the digital transformation of tax authorities. Survey respondents say they anticipate a far more diverse tax risk environment spanning everything from scrutiny of routine business activity, to major settlements in court.

As a result, managing tax risks and resulting disputes has rapidly risen in the corporate agenda. Two-thirds of respondents (66%) say it has already become more important to their tax department, while the same proportion, confirm that C-suite executives are demonstrating more oversight and interest in tax issues.

Geographically, respondents view Europe as the region representing the highest tax risk to businesses in the coming three years with the Americas and Asia-Pacific close behind. Attitudes to tax enforcement vary by industry, with businesses in the Media and Entertainment (57%), Oil & Gas (59%), and Telecommunications and Life Sciences sectors (68%) all reporting results in excess of the 53% global average of businesses that expect tax enforcement to increase.

Transfer pricing leads global tax risks

Transfer pricing has once again been identified as the biggest source of tax risk, as per the last three biennial surveys. Respondents say they fear a broader spectrum of risks in this area in 2021 and beyond due to pandemic-related profit volatility and the challenges of creating transfer pricing benchmarks that tax authorities will find acceptable.

A further mix of tax challenges and disputes is also expected as a result of the pandemic, including financial losses, the claiming of tax refunds, and even the receipt of stimulus measures. Almost half of respondents (45%) highlight the risk of tax, permanent establishment, and immigration issues related to stranded business and expatriate workers as a result of travel bans and immigration changes. Almost a third (28%) see potential for new tax audits relating to support or stimulus as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Business tax leaders also expect to pay more tax in the coming three years: 51% globally expect higher direct taxes, while 44% foresee higher indirect taxes.

Unprecedented rates of global tax reform, tax authority digital transformation

Even before the pandemic, tax functions were experiencing an unprecedented rate of digital and legislative change, with three-quarters (75%) of respondents noting that local tax reforms implemented over the last three years had increased overall tax risk levels. Meanwhile, almost three-quarters (74%) say that tax authority digitalization has increased tax risk for their tax department, with advancements in data analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI), and cross-border information sharing all leading to increased scrutiny of companies. Respondents note that many tax authorities are so digitally advanced that they may know more about a company’s tax affairs than the taxpayer themselves.

Managing tax controversy and risk

To manage tax risk and controversy, half (50%) of survey respondents say they are already using a Tax Control Framework (TCF). However, only 47% actively track current tax policy developments on an international scale, 37% routinely test their own tax filings using data analytics, and 28% regularly conduct a program of mock audits. All the while, 40% say they execute a clearly defined, proactive cooperative compliance strategy, and 35% execute a clearly defined Advance Pricing Agreement (APA) strategy.

Philippos Raptopoulos, Partner and Head of Tax and Legal Services at EY Cyprus, says: “The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly increased and further complicated tax risks. At the same time, digital transformation, the increasing volume of data worldwide and compliance requirements from tax administrations are inevitably leading to more risk and tougher audits. To deal with them, and reduce their tax risk profile, organisations need to adopt a global, centrally coordinated approach to tax risk and controversy management and invest in relevant technology.”