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Ηighly uncertain geopolitical and economic environment

17/11/2022 11:09

Cyprus' Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) continued to have a negative rate year-on-year this October for the third consecutive month.

The continued drop, of the index, the University of Cyprus' Economics Research Centre, said reflects "the highly uncertain geopolitical and economic environment, as well as the potential further deterioration of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the winter."

The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index1 (CCLEI) recorded a year-over-year decrease of 2.6% in October 2022, following the year-over-year decreases of 2.6% in September and 2.1% in August 2022, data which are based on recent and revised data, the Economics Research Centre said in a bulletin.

"The year-over-year CCLEI growth rate is negative in October 2022 reflecting the highly uncertain geopolitical, economic, and health environment," it added.

In particular, "the Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) in both Cyprus and the euro area recorded a considerable year-over-year drop in October 2022, with the ESI in the euro area reaching its lowest level since November 2020," the Economics Research Centre noted.

More precisely, it said, "confidence deteriorated across all business sectors in both Cyprus and the euro area, with the economic climate noting the greatest deterioration in the services sector for Cyprus and in the consumption sector for the euro area."

At the same time, the international Brent Crude oil price continues to contribute a negative year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI, recording a significant increase in its year-over-year growth rate in October 2022.

Similarly, the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production which has a relatively higher weight on the Index also contributes to its decline.

In contrast, it pointed out, "the acceleration recorded in the year-over-year growth rate of the remaining components of the CCLEI in October restrains the further decline of the Index."

In particular, the total number of property sales contracts, the value of credit card transactions, the retail sales volume as well as tourists’ arrivals, contribute to the short-term strengthening of the Cypriot economy.

According to UCy' Economics Research Centre, "the continuing negative year-over-year CCLEI growth rate reflects the extremely uncertain geopolitical and economic environment, as well as the potential further deterioration of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the winter."