Inflation is expected to be 1.3% in December 2019

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.3% in December 2019, up from 1.0% in November according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in December (2.0%, compared with 1.9% in November), followed by services (1.8%, compared with 1.9% in November), non-energy industrial goods (0.4%, stable compared with November) and energy (0.2%, compared with -3.2% in November).

In Cyprus annual inflation in December 2019 is expected at 0.7%, up from 0.5% in November 2019 and down from 1.0% in December 2018. In Greece the same rate is expeced at 1.1% in December 2019, up from 0.5% in November 2019 and 0.6% in December 2018.

Meanwhile, in November 2019 compared with October 2019, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 1.0% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU28. In October 2019, the retail trade volume decreased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU28. In November 2019 compared with November 2018, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU28.

In Cyprus, according to the latest available data, retail trade increased montly by 0.7% and annually by 6.1% for October 2019. In Greece retail trade decreased by -0.6% in monthly and increased by 7.1% in annual basis, again, for October 2019 (latest available data).

In the euro area in November 2019, compared with October 2019, the volume of retail trade increased by 1.4% for non-food products and by 0.7% for food, drinks and tobacco, while automotive fuels decreased by 1.0%. In the EU28, the volume of retail trade increased by 0.9% for non-food products and by 0.5% for food, drinks and tobacco while automotive fuels decreased by 0.8%. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Poland (+3.3%), Belgium (+2.7%) and Latvia (+2.6%). The largest decreases were observed in the United Kingdom (-1.7%), Ireland (-0.9%) and Finland (-0.5%).

In the euro area in November 2019, compared with November 2018, the volume of retail trade increased by 3.1% for non-food products and by 1.7% for food, drinks and tobacco while automotive fuel decreased by 1.4%. In the EU28, the retail trade volume increased by 2.5% for non-food products and by 1.7% for food, drinks and tobacco while automotive fuel decreased by 0.9%. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest yearly increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Hungary (+7.3%), Romania (+6.5%) and Poland (+5.9%). The largest decreases were observed in Slovakia (-4.0%), Slovenia (-2.0%) and the United Kingdom (-1.0%).